Dodd What can do now to survive stumbles

 

Friday, Apr 17,2009, 9:02:19 PM   Click:

Perceptions that the president of the Senate Banking Committee Chris Dodd, is too close to the banking industry and to put his personal ambitions before to cope with the financial crisis have put the risk of losing his seat and under the pressures that affect the way he steers his group on the agenda.

In interviews with the advisers, Capitol Hill staff, political analysts and representatives of the financial industry, it is clear that the Democrat of Connecticut Embattled running status of the review, he must face and left him little room for error. They said to stay in office, he needs to distance himself from the industry, turn left, spend more time in Connecticut, prove that he can implement President Obama on the agenda and to focus on consumer issues.

"It is extremely difficult tasks to face," said Roy Occhiogrosso, Dodd, a former Democratic leader and strategist. "The pressures on him are enormous."

The question of whether and how to manage Dodd interests is an open question. When asked how they advise Dodd, the sources were on the card - spend more time in Connecticut, focusing on his work in the Banking, consumer law is difficult (although it can not be adopted), or try to get the bills to be some chance of adoption closely divided Senate.

In addition, Dodd must work to cancel a series of mistakes that, fairly or not, the impression that he was given special treatment by Countrywide Financial Corp., and has helped ensure that American International Group Inc has received lavish executive bonuses.

"He needs a lot of explaining to do," said Stuart Rothenberg, a political analyst. "He needs to be very present in the state. It will have to spend much time talking to voters. "

Several sources have said the best strategy Dodd May a strong tilt to the left of the political and leadership in favor of consumers.

"I would tell him to function as a populist - move on the side of consumption," said former Rep. John LaFalce, the top Democrat of the House Financial Services Committee from 1998 to 2002. "Chris has always had a good instinct for consumption, which has become increasingly important in the days, weeks and months ahead."

LaFalce said Dodd has a good record on issues such as credit cards, but must continue to press these and other issues, including overdraft charges, predatory lending and derivatives regulation. The former legislator argued that Dodd would be better focusing on the regulation of the restructuring, although this is a priority for Obama and the House chairman of the Committee on Financial Services Barney Frank.

"I would warn that," LaFalce said. "It's like the rearrangement of chairs on the Titanic. He has an eye on the ball. "

Proof of the left focus can be found in a 12-11 vote in committee last month to pass a bill to approve the card practices. The bill is unlikely to adopt without modification. (Despite the vote, he does not enjoy uniform support among Democrats and Republicans oppose it).

But just push Bill Dodd gave a chance for a performance at home during the Easter break and won accolades from the Hartford Courant, which had criticized him a few weeks earlier for his role in the AIG bonuses .

Advisers say Dodd also include a series of hearings on topics such as the housing crisis, regulation and restructuring of the credit card when he campaigns back home, the adoption a bill is not necessary.

"I do not think he needs to prove to voters that he can pass a bill to modernize the financial structure has to prove he can pass a bill," said Amos Hochstein, former political director for Senator. "He has held several hearings on this subject. He works very hard, but it will not accelerate the process has to make a political point."

Dodd Obama's position could complicate the agenda of May, including a push for more money for the Troubled Asset Relief Program. The President said in January that his administration would probably need more than 700 billion dollars allocated to the Treasury Department for the past year, the program, but any request is likely to be very unpopular with legislators and their constituents .

Hochstein said that although Dodd has supported the administration to give more money, the administration would have to do the hard work itself.

"This is something that the administration itself will have to explain to public opinion in Connecticut, and also why this is necessary," said Hochstein. "If not, it can not be the work of Senator Dodd to be the spokesperson for the administration of its needs. They should do so on their own."

There is also the question of how long Dodd will need to spend campaigning in Connecticut, which could distract from the Banking Committee's responsibilities. Observers said it would be difficult to balance.

"He needs to continue to do its job," said Occhiogrosso. "Sometimes his work requires him to spend more time in Washington and, sometimes, his work requires him to spend more time in Connecticut. I think it should continue to strike the right balance between the two, which is hard, but that's what a senator to do, and I think he does a good job in this area. "

In an e-mail to American Banker, Dodd said he is focused on doing his job, not campaigning.

"I work with President Obama to build a 21st century financial system that protects consumers and investors to address the abusive practices of credit card, continue to evaluate and supervise the administration of financial rescue plans, through housing reforms that will help families avoid foreclosure and the pursuit of a rigorous program of transit, "he said.

In many ways, Dodd problems stem from the policy of the apparent abandonment of the state in 2007, when his presidential candidacy. The media now focuses on its association with Countrywide, and AIG, but the decision to move his family to Iowa to position itself for the primary, it has not been well back.

It also gave rise to a perception that he was not chairman of the Banking Committee as well as the financial crisis was deepening.

The move to Iowa was "a total disconnection of his constituents," said Roger Pearson, a lawyer from Connecticut and former Greenwich first selectman, who intends to challenge Dodd of the Democratic primary next year. "Why would it be even consider doing so, you do not have to leave the state - you bang together to try to make a yard for the economic system. ... It deflated the view of him, I believe, significantly in the state. "

Dodd, the problems of the empire, after it was revealed he had been considered a "friend of Angelo" Mozilo, then the country's chief executive, and allegations he received a reduced rate mortgage company. The press, particularly those conservative, jumped on and Dodd continued to Pummel him, even if it is not known whether he received special treatment.

The Senator himself did not do things by dragging them on the situation by refusing to release records on the mortgages he received before refinancing loans. "He should have immediately said:" These are the documents. This is not a big problem. ... Then he would probably have been more, "said Gerald Noonan, president of the Bankers Association of Connecticut, Dodd said that he supported for 30 years.

While Dodd has argued that he did not receive special treatment, the case continues to make opponents an opening. Former Rep. Rob Simmons, a Republican running against Dodd, said the explanation is thin. "A 28-year veteran of the banking and housing, which is now a president, do not think the VIP label means something when he gets a mortgage from a company that his committee oversees? This is not credible, "said Simmons, who exit 16 points ahead of Dodd in a recent survey.

The agreement also reinforced the idea that Dodd was too close to the financial services industry. He raised $ 9 million from the finance, insurance and real estate sector from 2003 to 2008, according to the Center for Responsive Politics. (The total includes money for his chairmanship of the Senate and courses.) About $ 900,000 from commercial banks.

Critics argue that it is irretrievably compromised. Noonan But Dodd said that wrong. The chief said the trade group, he constantly tried to explain why the bankers, they give money to the campaign of Senator, even if they do little to nothing in return. "Dodd has always been on the consumer side," he said. "I do not have any favors and I was to give Dodd 30 years, so I do not know who got all the favors.

Making things even worse for Dodd was his role in the AIG bonuses, which began as an attempt to get in front of the popular anger against the bailout beneficiaries. During the debate on the economic stimulus package in February, he added an amendment to limit executive compensation for Tarp beneficiaries, but excludes all bonuses paid before February 11.

After AIG bonuses came to light, Dodd denied knowing the exemption before finally recognize his office, he added at the request of the Department of the Treasury.

"You do not lose your credibility on an event or incident," said Simmons. "You do not lose in a day. Here you have a cumulative effect of a series of revelations, and, unfortunately, in May there be more. "

But his supporters argue Dodd was cursed, no matter what he did. "First, it has been criticized for pushing a bill that is too restrictive and he was accused of not being strict enough, it is ironic," said Occhiogrosso.

One result is that some political analysts believe the most vulnerable Dodd Senator of either party to the re-election.

"Senator Dodd is in huge danger and so must be called an underdog," said Charlie Cook, editor and publisher of The Cook Political Report. "If you ever want to say what he did not chance ... problems May be irreparable. "

There is already speculation that could arc Dodd and Democrats would be another candidate.

Everyone is not just rely on him yet. With 18 months before the general elections, several sources say that Dodd has a lot of time marketing itself to the voters of Connecticut. By some calculations, it would prevail if he got that 70% of Obama voters in the state.

Jim Jordan, a political adviser to Dodd, said the senator, who has never faced a serious reelection challenge before, is itself to reintroduce the constituents, and once they see the impact that he in Washington, the situation will change.

"There is a lot of events, talk about things that people want to hear about the stimulation, Tarp, their jobs," said Jordan. "It is central to virtually everything that happens in Washington. He really is and will be much in the next 18 months to run Obama on the agenda."