Hannover Re says 2009 results may outperform
Wednesday, Aug 12,2009, 3:25:38 PM Click:
In an interview at the company's Hannover offices, CFO Roland Vogel told The Associated Press that the company was well on its way to meet its net profit forecast of around euro600 million ($852 million) for the full year.
"We've already met two-thirds of our net income guidance for the full year," Vogel said. "We're confident we'll achieve all goals, maybe even outperform on some levels. The likelihood that we outperform has increased."
Reinsurers sell backup coverage to primary insurers so the insurance system can absorb large losses in the event of large losses or catastrophes.
Vogel said reaching the company's goals was however dependent on the rest of the year's catastrophes, especially American hurricane season. So far, things have been calm on that front.
He said one or two "normal" hurricanes have been factored in to the company's forecasts, while something extraordinary like the 2005 hurricane season, which ravaged the U.S. Gulf coast, could still affect 2009 earnings.
American National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration forecasters earlier this month lowered their outlook for the 2009 hurricane season, which runs from June to November.
The forecasters said they expect a normal to below normal season, with seven to 11 named tropical storms compared to nine to 14 forecast in May. Three to six of the storms could become hurricanes, with one or two becoming major storms. At the current peak of the season, there have not been any named storms so far.
Vogel also said while there still may be negative surprises waiting in the economy and financial markets, he believes the crisis has passed for Hannover Re.
He said unemployment rates and some banks' provisions for additional defaults were still somewhat worrisome, and governments which have pumped money into the economy will have to consider how to finance those efforts in future.
"I don't see that the crisis is fully behind the world economy. I would argue that Hannover Re has the crisis behind it."
In the interview late Monday, Vogel predicted Hannover Re would consider a move back into equity markets by the end of the third or beginning of the fourth quarter once hurricane season is past and it has a more reliable gauge of its capital position.
He said the reinvestment in equities would probably concentrate on exchange traded funds and that Hannover Re would allocate about 5 percent of its invested asset portfolio, or about euro1 billion, toward equities.
Hannover Re sold off its equity portfolio in October last year at a loss of more than euro600 million as the financial crisis took hold. But from a risk management perspective, observers lauded the company for honoring its own risk assessment and following through with its decision to liquidate its positions.
Despite the loss, Vogel said the financial crisis also drives reinsurance demand and provides good opportunities for the industry.
He said Hannover Re would also consider acquisitions in the life reinsurance business, which is more predictable than the property and casualty market, but wouldn't say how much the company envisioned spending.
"Every (life reinsurance) acquisition which is on the market, we would look at, and also consider investing in. We will not look at non-life reinsurance companies available for sale."
Earlier this month, Hannover Re reported euro202.9 million in second quarter net profit, up from euro100.8 million a year earlier.
The company said gross written premiums, a measure of revenue, increased almost 39 percent to euro2.58 billion.
For the first six months, the company earned euro419 million in net profit, up 66 percent, while gross written premiums climbed nearly 27 percent to euro5.3 billion.
UniCredit analysts said in a recent research note that Hannover Re's second quarter and first half results had beaten market expectations in most segments. UniCredit raised its earnings per share estimates for 2009 and 2010 by 4 percent and 5 percent.
"With first half 2009 EPS of euro3.47, the company's full year EPS target of euro5 does not look as challenging as before; unsurprisingly, Hannover Re confirmed this target. We still remain below that guidance, allowing for more severe catastrophic events and below-target investment yields.
"We confirm our 'Buy' rating for Hannover Re stock and have increased our target price to euro35," UniCredit said.
Hannover Re shares were up 1.3 percent at euro29.73 in early Frankfurt trading Tuesday.
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