Politicians, aides, comment on Medvedev's address

Article by Yelena Bilevskaya, Aleksandra Samarina, Mikhail Sergeyev, Artur Blinov, and Vadim Solovyev: "Presidential Briefing for Elites at All Levels. Dmitriy Medvedev Sends Political Reform to the Regions"

Dmitriy Medvedev yesterday [12 November] delivered his second Message to the Federal Assembly. The president's message to the nation was the longest in the entire history of modern Russia -- he was speaking for one hour and 40 minutes. He devoted the greater part of the Message to the subject of modernization. In effect, Medvedev announced a program for the strategic development of the country for decades to come. And the head of state sent political reform to the regions. At the same time he warned opposition factions that they should not rock the political boat.

The head of state appeared in the auditorium at precisely noon. A minute before, Prime Minister Vladimir Putin entered, accompanied by the speakers of the two chambers of parliament, Boris Gryzlov and Sergey Mironov. Those present welcomed the president with a standing ovation. The president began his speech with a reference to his own article "Forward, Russia!" He criticized the handling of the Russian economy in Vladimir Putin's era. "While oil prices were rising, many people, almost everyone, had the illusion that structural reforms could wait," he observed. "There can be no more delay. The modernization and technical renewal of the entire state sphere is a question of survival in the modern world," he stated. Meanwhile the camera kept focusing on Prime Minister Putin. It was obvious from the expression on his face that he was not very pleased with Medvedev's words. However, the prime minister's gaze did not bother Medvedev in the least. He spoke about the need to switch the economy onto an innovative footing for approximately an hour.

Promises Were Made, but Will They Be Kept?

The economic section of the president's Message was quite long. The head of state spoke about the need for a new tax reform, about the state corporations, and about the production of hydrogen fuel and new engines for flights to other planets. Veterans of the Great Patriotic War were once again promised an improvement in their housing conditions, while the entire population was promised good-quality and affordable medicines. The president also promised to "adopt prompt measures to prevent a steep decline in living standards in the mono-cities [cities dominated by a single industry or enterprise]."

Will these top-level promises to provide the population with "good-quality and affordable medicines" be kept, when after six months of the swine flu epidemic the government has still not been able to ensure the availability even of simple gauze bandages? And the president's promise to ensure that front-line soldiers receive housing up to the required social standard if they need it, is often not kept, in fact (see Nezavisimaya Gazeta for 21 October 2009).

The abstract nature of the greater part of the president's economic theses was confirmed yesterday even by Dmitriy Medvedev's closest aides. Immediately after the Message was read, the president's economic aide Arkadiy Dvorkovich stated that real tax changes and a reduction in the taxation burden in Russia cannot be expected before 2012. Furthermore, Dvorkovich explained, it is too soon as yet to talk in concrete terms about concessions for business in the context of the replacement of the single social tax by insurance contributions.

The experts also considered the five economic priorities that the president insists on to be contentious. According to him, the priorities in the modernization of the economy and technological development are "the introduction of the latest medical, energy, and information technologies, the development of space and telecommunications systems, and a radical improvement in energy efficiency." However, economists believe that the president is wrong to exclude housing construction or education from the list of priorities.

"The path to modernization and emergence from the crisis lies in the four national projects that were run by the current president when he was vice premier. Housing, medicine, education -- these are certainly not just ways of doing good works. These are the areas that can create the greatest market demand and at the same time ensure the growth of prosperity and the protection of the nation," Yevgeniy Yasin, scientific leader of the Higher School of Economics, says. According to him, Dmitriy Medvedev should be more careful in his choice of advisors. "They sometimes put things on the president's lips that make the public laugh or irritate them," Yevgeniy Yasin notes.

However, some of the president's recommendations appear perfectly realistic. For instance, the desire to convert the state corporations into joint-stock companies. Whether this conversion will prompt an increase in the effectiveness of state spending, and whether they will not become new Gazproms, is another question. It is highly likely that the flotation of the state corporations could be in the interests of their present leaders.

Political Transformation of the Regions

As Nezavisimaya Gazeta predicted, Medvedev sent the political reform that he proposed a year ago to the regions. He began talking about it close to the end of his speech. Like last time, he formulated 10 steps. True, to begin with the president noted that the multiparty system has, in general, taken shape and the parties have withstood the test of time. However, according to him, "there are problems with the organization of elections and a low level of political culture." The president's first initiative is to introduce criteria for the number of deputies of legislative assemblies of the Federation components. Medvedev observed with perplexity that in the economically strong Moscow, with its population of many millions, there are only 35 members of parliament, while in the People's Hural [Assembly] of Tyva, where the population is 30 times smaller, there are 162. "We should think about a flexible way of smoothing out these excesses," he urged the audience.

The second step is to guarantee all parties with representation in the regional parliaments the right to form factions and also to hold leadership posts in the legislative assemblies. Furthermore, according to the president, deputies of all factions should carry out their work on a permanent basis. The oppositionists had asked Medvedev about this at a meeting back in the spring. The third proposal is to ensure that federal legislatures use the special federal norm of a 5% barrier for small parties.

Medvedev's fourth proposal is to exempt nonparliamentary parties with representation in the legislative assemblies from the requirement to collect signatures for regional and municipal elections. The head of state believes that in time it will be possible totally to abandon the practice of collecting signatures in any elections. "Our legislation is already sufficiently exacting toward parties," he argued. The fifth step is that the regional chambers should devote one session a year to hearing reports from representatives of nonparliamentary parties. In addition, Medvedev believes that the opposition should receive the right to work on local electoral commissions. The sixth proposal is to impose order with regard to early voting in all types of elections, as well as voting with absentee ballots. As his seventh point, Medvedev proposed that laws be adopted in all Russia's components on the parties' equality with regard to air time with regional television companies. And he also recommended that the State Duma, Federation Council, and Constitutional Court ensure "live transmissions of sessions." Although both chambers of parliament can already be watched on the Internet. The eighth initiative prompts governors to deliver annual reports to regional deputies. The ninth concerns the electoral system. "This year an inter-party discussion is under way on the need to go over to elections based exclusively on party lists for elections to representative organs of power at every level. Incidentally, this idea was put forward both by representatives of the ruling party and by representatives of opposition parties. A common opinion has not yet been formulated. I propose that we begin to formulate it. The discussion of this issue should be continued, and I will make a decision on the basis of the discussion." Medvedev's tenth point is to start using high-tech systems in the electoral system. He gave corresponding instructions to the government and the Central Electoral Commission. Vyacheslav Volodin, secretary of the United Russia General Council Presidium, was incredibly pleased with this statement by the president. After the Message he boasted that it was his party, at a recent meeting with the president, that proposed the introduction of electronic vote-counting systems in all types of elections. After completing the enumeration of the political initiatives that, in Medvedev's view, should perfect the multiparty system in the country, the president promised to punish those who try "under democratic slogans to destabilize the state and split society." According to Medvedev, there is one law for both ruling and opposition parties.

Garri Minkh, the president's plenipotentiary representative in the State Duma, in conversation with Nezavisimaya Gazeta, explained that "the president of the Russian Federation does not introduce his initiatives to regional parliaments," and therefore the regions themselves will have to put them forward. Irkutsk Oblast Governor Dmitriy Mezentsev told Nezavisimaya Gazeta that he will address the regional parliament on 18 November and give instructions for the introduction of the relevant legislative initiatives. And Volodin stated that United Russia plans to take the initiative in the regions. And to formulate the appropriate draft laws in each Federation component on the basis of the president's instructions and put them through the regional parliaments. In conversation with Nezavisimaya Gazeta, he did not rule out the possibility that the United Russians could also invite the opposition parties to join in this process.

Medvedev devoted a separate section of his annual Message to parliament to the problem of the North Caucasus region. He noted that the level of corruption and the clan system in the North Caucasus republics is "unprecedented." The head of state spoke of the need to introduce the post of an official responsible for the state of affairs in that region. Chief of Presidential Staff Sergey Naryshkin stated: "It is important that this official should possess sufficient powers to coordinate the organs of power. He should have powers simultaneously from the government and from other organs of state power."

Defense Imbalance

This year the section on military issues was expanded to include problems connected with the defense industry. Speaking of the need to deliver a wide range of the most up-to-date armaments to the Russian Army next year, Dmitriy Medvedev basically read out the relevant points of the state defense order: "Next year it is necessary to deliver to the troops more than 30 ground- and sea-based ballistic missiles, five Iskander missile systems, about 300 items of modern armored equipment, 30 helicopters, 28 combat aircraft, three nuclear submarines, and one 'Corvette'-class warship."

Experts believe that this statement was bold, to say the least. Ground-based Topols will be delivered, of course, although hitherto they have been manufactured at the rate of 11 a year. But what about the sea-launched Bulava? It is not going to enter series production anytime soon, maybe not even in 2010 -- there are too many defects. Specialists have already begun to say that the project is fundamentally a failure and that it would be simpler and cheaper to start a new one than to get the present one into shape. But the General Staff is against it, and the matter of the new sea-based strategic missile will, to all appearances, be left hanging for a long time, maybe for years.

To the surprise of military-industrial circles, the head of state pointed to the need to observe a sense of proportion in deliveries of arms for export and for the needs of national defense: "An effective system of orders of military products should be created such that a balance will be strictly observed between deliveries for national defense needs and deliveries for abroad."

People in the federal body responsible for military exports found it hard to say exactly what proportion he had in mind, and advised us to approach the initiators of this innovation in the relevant administration. People actually in the military industry are also somewhat discouraged by this way of looking at the matter. If there was money from the state defense order, the Armed Forces would be swamped with the latest equipment. Incidentally, orders from abroad simply helped the defense industry sector to survive in recent years, when the state was appropriating only financial crumbs while at the same time stifling them with taxes and deferred loans.

On the subject of military reform, the president dwelt on the question of providing housing for servicemen. "The Russian Ministry of Defense and the other security agencies should stick to their commitments for the construction and acquisition of apartments." In practice this means that the Defense Ministry must provide servicemen with 40,000 apartments this year and the same next year. This year is nearing its end, and only half of what was planned for the year has been acquired -- apparently the developers, despite the crisis, are hiking up the prices. The government has deemed it possible to increase expenditure on these purposes by approximately 50%, the president announced.

No Cause To Puff out Our Cheeks

In his Message Medvedev directly linked the country's foreign policy objectives with its development goals. "Our relations with other countries should also be directed toward achieving the objectives of the modernization of Russia. We have no cause, as the saying goes, to 'puff out our cheeks,'" he believes.

Clarifying this allusion, Medvedev explained that Russia has an interest in an influx of capital, new technologies, and advanced ideas. And for our partners, rapprochement with Russia is, in the president's view, necessary in order to realize their own priority goals.

This understanding of the situation leads to the conclusion: "Our foreign policy must be exclusively pragmatic. Its effectiveness should be evaluated by the simple criterion: Does it help to improve living standards in our country?"

"There should be special monitoring of diplomatic work in the interests of the country's economy, specifically the country's economy," the president stated. "The results of this work should be expressed not only in concrete assistance for Russian companies abroad, not only in efforts to promote the brands of Russian goods and services, although all of this is very important, but also in the volume of foreign investments that are attracted, and most importantly, in the influx of the latest technologies into the country."

"I am instructing the government by the end of the current year to formulate precise criteria for evaluating the results of foreign policy activities for achieving the objectives of modernization and the technological breakthrough," Medvedev stated. According to him, the Russian Foreign Ministry should make this work its systemic basis and, on the basis of the results, draw up a program for the effective utilization of foreign policy factors with a view to long-term development.

In the light of the new tasks, Medvedev believes, "we ourselves should change our approaches and think more about how to organize joint work." His call for this kind of collectiveness applies first and foremost to efforts to tackle complex international policy issues such as the problem of the nuclear programs of Iran and North Korea, instability in Afghanistan, the Middle East settlement, and so forth. In this context, in order to formulate collective approaches, more active use should be made of the universal mechanism of the United Nations organization.

In the view of the president of the Russian Federation, the main efforts in the security sphere should be focused on a treaty on ensuring European security. In this context, he stated, the legal -- that is, international-legal -- formulation of the principle of the indivisibility of security in the Euro-Atlantic is, for us, an imperative. We are sometimes accused of dreaming up all this to work against NATO. That is not true. We do not formulate our foreign policy "against anyone," Medvedev stated.

The Message: Commentaries by the Kremlin Staff

The quintessence of the Message, according to Nezavisimaya Gazeta's high-ranking source in the Kremlin [Presidential] Staff, lies in the approaches to the concept of modernization of the country: "This is a rather vague word, but it has no equivalent..." The party political elite in Russia has not yet grasped the importance of the task, the source laments: "The audience quickly falls asleep when you talk about this in party forums." "Our country is very backward mentally, and critical reevaluation of this complex situation is necessary."

In this context, people in the Kremlin believe, progress should be smooth, gradual, and nonviolent. Which is at variance, in many ways, with Russian history -- the history of czars and people's commissars. Faintheartedness prevails in society, Nezavisimaya Gazeta's source observes: "That is why we are accentuating the problem."

The gradual nature of the transition to the new stage, which also implies the modernization of political life, is emphasized in the Message through ostentatious attention to regional problems: the system of electoral legislation at local level, the lowering of the electoral barrier, the gradual abolition of the collection of signatures by nonparliamentary parties. "Party structures registered at the Ministry of Justice and having branches in many regions of the country already have no need for this archaic way of confirming their right to participate in elections." Moreover, the source stressed, the checking of signatures is a convenient opportunity for the authorities to manipulate the electoral process.

The Kremlin also attaches importance to the idea of endowing representatives of small parties who make it into regional parliaments and the Duma with the rights of factions -- irrespective of the number of seats gained in a legislative body.

Certain issues touched on in the president's Message will be worked on further. They include the powers of the official who will be charged with regulating the relationship between the Center and the republics of the North Caucasus. Here, the source emphasized, the need is for "a civilian -- the siloviki [security chiefs] will not be able to do it." The post has not yet been defined -- but it is already clear that the new leader must represent both the Presidential Staff and the government.

The Kremlin is confident that the introduction of electronic forms of voting will help to avoid vote-rigging in elections in the future. Incidentally, the Kremlin does not deny the existence of instances of rigging of the election results -- however, they believe that the opposition could not produce really weighty evidence of such instances.

According to First Deputy Chief of Presidential Staff Vladislav Surkov, the fact that the president addressed the problem of regional elections in this year's Message certainly does not mean that the head of state has responded to the opposition parties' protests and criticism in the media: "This topic was planned back in March, long before the fall [local election] campaign."

Source: Nezavisimaya Gazeta website, Moscow, in Russian 13 Nov 09