WSI: Potential for Unusually Quiet Atlantic Hurricane Season

Hurricane forecaster WSI Corp. is standing firm with its prediction of 11 named storms, six hurricanes and two intense hurricanes this season, which began June 1.

WSI, a provider of weather-driven business solutions, said cooler ocean temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean continue to influence the forecast. WSI forecaster Todd Crawford said the temperatures are cooler than at any time since 1994 and El Nino conditions, a factor in Atlantic hurricanes, are strengthening in the Pacific.

"This has resulted in an unfavorable wind shear environment across the tropical Pacific," Crawford said in a statement. "This early emergence of this enhanced wind shear along with the relatively cool tropical Atlantic temperatures will almost certainly result in a less-active season than last year, and could potentially result in an unusually quiet season."

The forecast was issued as a update to WSI's May forecast, which was the same. In April, the corporation lowered its projections.

Earlier this month, the same environmental factors prompted a team of hurricane forecasters at Colorado State University to lower their predictions for the season to 11 named storms between now and the end of the season Nov. 30. Five storms are predicted to become hurricanes and two are expected to be major hurricanes, with winds of 111 mph or more ? making it a Category 3 storm on the Saffir-Simpson Scale (BestWire, June 4, 2009).

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said there is a 70% chance of nine to 14 named storms this year in the Atlantic, of which four to seven can become hurricanes and one to three could be major (BestWire, May 26, 2009).

In April last year, WSI's forecast called for 14 named storms, eight hurricanes and four intense hurricanes. The 2008 Atlantic hurricane season contained 16 named storms; eight formed into hurricanes, five of them major.